The "Great Moderation" in a Dual Exchange Rate Regime

Regime Switching, Learning, and the Great Moderation

This paper examines the bad luck explanation for changing volatility in U.S. ination and output when agents do not have rational expectations, but instead form expectations through least squares learning with an endogenously changing learning gain. It has been suggested that this type of endogenously changing learning mechanism can create periods of excess volatility without the need for change...

Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation

We assess the quantitative importance of expectation effects of regime shifts in monetary policy in a DSGE model that allows the monetary policy rule to switch between a “bad” regime and a ”good” regime. When agents take into account such regime shifts in forming expectations, the expectation effect is asymmetric. In the good regime, the expectation effect is small despite agents’ disbelief tha...

The Impact of Monetary Regime on the Exchange Rate Pass-Through under Exchange Rate Volatility (Dynamic Panel Data Approach)

Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime

1The sequence within intermediate regimes is somewhat arbitrary. For example, if the band is as narrow as 2 4 % as in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism or even 1% as under Bretton Woods, then it would properly belong closer to the fixed-rate end of the spectrum. Similarly, if the adjustable peg involved a devaluation or revaluation every time a moderate shock came along, it would properly be...

The Great Happiness Moderation

This paper shows that within-country happiness inequality has fallen in the majority of countries that have experienced positive income growth over the last forty years, in particular in developed countries. This new stylized fact comes as an addition to the Easterlin paradox, which states that the time trend in average happiness is flat during episodes of long-run income growth. This mean-pres...